HDB Resale Price Trends: What’s Driving the Numbers in 2025?

Every young professional searching for a first home or family looking to upgrade often faces one major question: will HDB resale prices continue to rise? Over the past five years, prices have steadily increased. But now in 2025, the pace has started to ease. This change matters. Resale prices reflect not only market confidence but also the health of the broader housing system in Singapore and other countries with similar public housing models.

When prices slow down, it doesn’t necessarily mean the market is weak. It can show that policies are working and demand is becoming more balanced. The market is shaped by how much people earn, how high interest rates are, and how secure buyers feel about their financial future.

Current Figures and Market Movement

The Housing & Development Board released a flash estimate showing the RPI reached 202.8 in Q2 2025. While the rise of 0.9% seems small, it adds to a long stretch of consistent growth. For context, this is the third quarter in a row where price growth has slowed.

In June, monthly data reported by 99-SRX indicated only a 0.1% price increase from May. At the same time, resale transactions dropped slightly to 2,276 units. That’s a 0.4% fall, which suggests fewer buyers were willing to make purchases at current prices.

A look at unit types reveals interesting differences. Three and five room flats saw slight growth 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively. Four-room flats stayed at their previous level, while executive flats declined by 2.7%. Buyers are clearly leaning toward modest homes, likely due to tighter budgets or cautious borrowing habits.

Main Factors Behind Price Changes

Several elements influence where prices go next. These are the main drivers at play:

Global financial mood
When the markets in the U.S. and Europe look stable, it boosts confidence among investors and homebuyers in Singapore. A sense of predictability encourages more activity in the resale segment.

Supply of Build-to-Order (BTO) flats
The number of new flats offered plays a big role. When many BTOs are available, fewer buyers turn to the resale market. But when BTO supply drops, competition for resale flats intensifies, pushing prices up.

Loan and interest rate policies
Recent hikes in borrowing costs have reshaped buyer decisions. As the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks raised interest rates, local banks adjusted mortgage packages. This means buyers now need to plan their finances more carefully before taking on home loans.

Cities like Copenhagen, Seoul, and Auckland show similar patterns. When credit is cheap and easy to access, prices rise quickly. But once policymakers tighten lending, markets tend to cool down fast.

Trends Since 2020

Since Q1 2020, the HDB resale market has grown for 20 consecutive quarters. This long streak echoes the surge seen in the 1990s, although the pace now is far more measured. Back then, prices almost quadrupled. Today’s increase is closer to 50%.

In 2024 alone, prices jumped by 9.7%. That was a bit faster than 2023 but still slower than the growth seen in 2022. Analysts link this cooling trend to larger BTO launches and stronger government action aimed at curbing speculative behavior.

The result is a more steady and stable price path. This provides greater predictability for both homebuyers and owners considering a sale or upgrade.

Global Comparisons and Unique Practices

Public housing works differently in other countries. In Vienna, strict rent rules prevent sudden spikes in housing costs. This helps keep homes affordable for most residents.

In Hong Kong, there’s little government control over resale housing. Without price limits or subsidies, resale prices often reach very high levels, making it difficult for many families to enter the market.

In Helsinki, the city retains a “first purchase right” over surrendered flats. This lets them buy units back from sellers, keeping speculators away and maintaining housing balance.

When seen next to these cities, Singapore’s careful pricing policies appear balanced. A 0.9% quarterly gain may seem small, but it’s consistent and rooted in long-term planning.

Affordability also remains strong. According to the OECD Housing Affordability Index, Singapore families carry a lighter loan burden than those in cities like Sydney or Seoul. Only Tokyo edges ahead in terms of lower loan-to-income ratios.

Effects on Buyers and Sellers

For Buyers

Mei Ling is a recent graduate saving for a 4-room flat. In 2022, such a unit cost more than SGD 600,000. Today, it hovers around SGD 650,000. The slower pace of price growth doesn’t mean prices are falling. It simply indicates that extreme jumps are less likely.

She still needs to budget carefully, but there’s comfort in knowing the market is moving steadily. There’s less worry about buying now and seeing a sudden drop in value later.

For Sellers

Daniel, who works in tech, bought a 3-room flat in 2018. By 2025, its value increased by roughly 30%. Although growth has eased this year, he hasn’t felt any urgency to sell. He’s watching the market and waiting for signs of another price push before upgrading.

Owners like him are especially cautious about letting go of homes with solid gains. The weak demand for larger units means he may not get the premium he hoped for if he sells now.

Interest Rates and Housing Strategy

Back in 2023, the Monetary Authority of Singapore raised the loan-to-value ceiling for public housing. This slowed borrowing and nudged buyers toward more affordable options.

At the same time, global inflation drove up borrowing costs in North America and Europe. Market watchers kept a close eye on benchmarks like euribor and SOFR. Here in Singapore, the SORA rate moved up too, but at a slower and more controlled pace.

Higher loan rates have pushed more buyers to consider alternatives like BTO flats or rental arrangements. Developers are also adjusting strategies to manage demand shifts.

The government remains active in shaping the market. By limiting the release of premium flats in high-demand zones, they reduce the risk of property speculation. This helps keep housing sustainable and accessible for the average citizen.

What Buyers Are Seeing on the Ground

An agent working in River Valley observed a change in buyer behavior. Prospective buyers are now more concerned about whether a price is reasonable than how large the flat is. It now takes more viewings, sometimes five or six before buyers make an offer. This shows that they are examining value more closely.

In Tampines, a couple who relocated from the UK shared their perspective. The husband is a teacher and the wife is a nurse. They said prices here are higher than ten years ago but still feel stable. They appreciate that the government actively manages the housing supply. In the UK, they often faced stressful bidding wars just to secure a modest home.

OrangeTee Research highlighted a telling statistic. Over 23 quarters, prices have risen by 58%. That may seem like a lot, but it’s far below the scale seen in past housing booms. This adds to the case that Singapore’s growth is firm without being risky.

Market Outlook Moving Forward

Looking at all the data and ground reports, the resale market continues to show strength. It’s not aggressive, nor is it weakening. For buyers, price signals are more transparent. For sellers, the long-term view still looks good, especially if overseas markets stabilize and local supply stays managed.

This mix of healthy growth and policy discipline paints a picture of a housing market that remains dependable. For anyone buying, selling, or just observing, Singapore’s public housing system continues to show what sustainable success can look like.